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It Is Estimated That China's Annual Coal Output Will Reach 3.45 Billion Tons.

- Feb 21, 2019 -

The report "Coal Economic Operation in November 2016" issued recently by China Coal Transport and Marketing Association points out that at present, the contradiction between insufficient total demand for coal and excess production capacity still exists, and the problems of capital shortage and operation difficulties of enterprises are still outstanding. The data show that since September, the release of coal production capacity has been increasing continuously. In October and November, the output of coal has continuously increased. In November, the output was 308 million tons, an increase of 26.16 million tons, an increase of 9.3%, and the annual output is expected to be about 3.45 billion tons.

The report makes it clear that coal consumption has decreased nationwide this year. According to estimates, coal consumption in China in the first 11 months was about 3.49 billion tons, down 1.6% from the same period last year. Coal consumption in power, steel and other industries declined from the same period last year, while that in building materials and chemical industries remained flat or increased. Since August, China's coal consumption has changed from negative to positive, with an increase of 1.4% in November compared with the same period last year, of which electricity consumption has increased by 3.2%. In terms of output, the output of raw coal of Coal Enterprises above the national scale in the first 11 months was 3.05 billion tons, a decrease of 340 million tons compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 10%.

Data show that coal imports have rebounded substantially. In the first 11 months, China imported 228.69 million tons of coal, an increase of 42.27 million tons, an increase of 22.7%, exports 8.2 million tons and net imports 22.67 million tons, an increase of 21.6%. Coal imports have remained at a high level since May, with 26.97 million tons imported in November, the highest monthly import since 2015, an increase of 10.78 million tons, or 66.6% over the same period last year. It is estimated that about 250 million tons of imports will be imported in the whole year, an increase of 50 million tons over 2015.

Data also show that coal shipments continue to grow. In the first 11 months, 1.715 billion tons of coal were transported by railways across the country, down by 104 million tons, or 5.7%, compared with the same period last month. Among them, 175 million tons were transported by railways in November, up by 18.65 million tons, or 11.9%, for three consecutive months, with an increase of 53 percentage points over the previous month. The main ports shipped 587 million tons of coal, which was basically unchanged from the same period last year. Among them, 58.16 million tons were shipped in November, an increase of 17.2% over the same period last year.

In addition, the ratio of coal storage rings between ports and users continues to increase. At the end of November, about 100 million tons of coal were stored in key coal enterprises, a decrease of 3.5 million tons compared with last month. The coal storage capacity of key power generation enterprises is 69.86 million tons, a decrease of 3.61 million tons, a decrease of 4.9%, a decrease of 3.72 million tons, a decrease of 5% over the beginning of the year, and can be used for 20 days. Over the past three months, the inventory ratio of major users and ports has increased significantly. The daily supply of key power plants is larger than the daily consumption. In the first ten days of December, 69.73 million tons of coal were stored, an increase of 8.8 million tons compared with the end of August, an increase of 40%. In the five ports around the Bohai Sea, 18.21 million tons of coal were stored, an increase of 57% compared with the end of August. Among them, the coal storage in Qinhuangdao Port increased from 2.5 million tons at the low point to 6.69 million tons

In terms of price, there is a high retracement trend. On December 11, the flat warehouse price of power coal in the 5500 cards market of Qinhuangdao Port was 655 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year, an increase of 77%. Recently, coal supply and demand enterprises have actively signed medium and long-term contracts. Major large coal enterprises have taken the initiative to reduce prices and promote the rational return of coal prices. With the increase of coal supply, the relationship between supply and demand tends to ease, and the market price of coal began to recover. At present, the market price of coal in Qinhuangdao Port has dropped by 40-50 yuan/ton at the high point. The coking coal price has risen by about 700 yuan/ton since this year. The comprehensive price of Shanxi coking fertilizer concentrate on December 13 is 1395 yuan/ton, which is 817 yuan/ton higher than that of the previous year.

In addition, investment continued to decline. Fixed assets investment in coal mining and dressing industry in China has been declining continuously since 2013. Investment in the first 11 months of this year was 276.4 billion yuan, down 23.2% compared with the same period last year, of which private investment was 168.8 billion yuan, down 16.5%.

It is noteworthy that industry earnings have increased. In the first 10 months, the main business income of Coal Enterprises above the scale was 181.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5% compared with the same period last year, and the profit of the whole industry was 57.31 billion yuan, an increase of 112.9% compared with the same period last year. The profits of 90 large enterprises directly reported by the association in the first 10 months were 16.631 billion yuan, an increase of 15.403 billion yuan over the same period last year. Payment recovery has improved. At the end of October, the accounts receivable of Coal Enterprises above the scale of 327.4 billion yuan, down 8.9% from the same period last year.